Flu Pandemic: Deadly forecast
SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER EDITORIAL BOARD
Bird flu has taken several serious runs at devastating humanity with an epidemic illness. The outbreaks began in Hong Kong in 1997, with a brief panic over six deaths.
Despite isolated human deaths in Asia since then, however, the virus has yet to acquire the ability to spread through people-to-people contact. Public health officials in Seattle and worldwide are watching nervously as new reports of the flu's spread among birds in Russia increase the chance that a mutation will transform the virus into the next threat of a human pandemic.
If it's not bird flu, experts say, some new influenza virus will inevitably create a new pandemic, many times more deadly than the annual flu outbreaks. It could be this year, five years from now or later. But time can be a friend, allowing for more preparation at every level. The preparation also helps with bioterrorism or other threats.
Public Health -- Seattle & King County is launching an effort to talk with major businesses about easing the health and economic impacts of a pandemic. In recent days, international scientific studies have suggested new strategies that might nip an avian flu outbreak in the bud.
A pandemic could strike down relatively young people filling critical work roles. A 1918 outbreak proved particularly deadly among people 20 to 40 years old. No vaccine would be available for at least six months, experts assume. And antibiotics would be less useful, since many deaths result from flu effects rather than bacterial infections. A knowledgeable group, Trust for America's Health, reports that even a moderately severe flu could kill a half-million U.S. residents.
After congressional criticism, the Bush administration is looking at buying more stockpiles of an anti-viral drug that has shown some effectiveness. But Trust for America's Health compared U.S. efforts unfavorably with those in many countries, particularly Canada and Britain. Washington state Health Secretary Mary Selecky recently testified to a House committee on the need to maintain federal support for state and local preparedness activities.
If a pandemic flu strikes soon, however, the effects will have to be faced on local levels. The city, region and state will have to make quick and critical decisions.
Bird flu has taken several serious runs at devastating humanity with an epidemic illness. The outbreaks began in Hong Kong in 1997, with a brief panic over six deaths.
Despite isolated human deaths in Asia since then, however, the virus has yet to acquire the ability to spread through people-to-people contact. Public health officials in Seattle and worldwide are watching nervously as new reports of the flu's spread among birds in Russia increase the chance that a mutation will transform the virus into the next threat of a human pandemic.
If it's not bird flu, experts say, some new influenza virus will inevitably create a new pandemic, many times more deadly than the annual flu outbreaks. It could be this year, five years from now or later. But time can be a friend, allowing for more preparation at every level. The preparation also helps with bioterrorism or other threats.
Public Health -- Seattle & King County is launching an effort to talk with major businesses about easing the health and economic impacts of a pandemic. In recent days, international scientific studies have suggested new strategies that might nip an avian flu outbreak in the bud.
A pandemic could strike down relatively young people filling critical work roles. A 1918 outbreak proved particularly deadly among people 20 to 40 years old. No vaccine would be available for at least six months, experts assume. And antibiotics would be less useful, since many deaths result from flu effects rather than bacterial infections. A knowledgeable group, Trust for America's Health, reports that even a moderately severe flu could kill a half-million U.S. residents.
After congressional criticism, the Bush administration is looking at buying more stockpiles of an anti-viral drug that has shown some effectiveness. But Trust for America's Health compared U.S. efforts unfavorably with those in many countries, particularly Canada and Britain. Washington state Health Secretary Mary Selecky recently testified to a House committee on the need to maintain federal support for state and local preparedness activities.
If a pandemic flu strikes soon, however, the effects will have to be faced on local levels. The city, region and state will have to make quick and critical decisions.
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