Deadly flu break-out 'inevitable'
Matthew Franklin, national political editor
24aug05
TENS of millions of people could die in an avian flu pandemic that experts believe is inevitable, welfare organisation CARE Australia has warned.
CARE chief executive Robert Glasser yesterday called for a major international effort to help the developing world prepare for the expected outbreak, which he said could be more deadly than the 1918 influenza pandemic that killed at least 40 million people.
"The only defence against this is forward defence – our responses need to be in developing countries in the region where these outbreaks are likely to occur," Dr Glasser said.
"We are woefully unprepared to do that right now."
Avian flu normally affects birds and pigs but was found in humans in Hong Kong in 1997, leading to the mass destruction of the nation's 1.5 million chickens.
It has since been seen in several other Asian nations.
Dr Glasser said the World Health Organisation believed about 110 people had contracted the virus with half of the those affected dying.
Experts also fear that within a few years the virus will develop to the point where it could travel between humans, exposing the world to a potential catastrophe.
"Most people think it's not a question of will it happen but when," Dr Glasser said. "In a worst-case scenario you could imagine that 10-20 per cent of the people who get it could die from it.
"At the worst case this would be an unprecedented and inconceivably deadly virus."
Dr Glasser said developed nations, including Australia, had produced action plans and stockpiled anti-viral medications to cope with any break-out.
But the developing world had little capacity for obtaining medicine, highlighting the need for a major international push to stockpile drugs and develop rapid response teams to contain outbreaks.
"The critical period in terms of our response to this is really the next three years," he said.
"The penny is just dropping for some governments."
Dr Glasser said many people failed to understand the seriousness of the situation because they associated influenza with the illness they suffered each winter.
But avian flu posed a massive risk because so few people had been exposed to it and had developed resistance.
"What people don't realise is that these sorts of pandemics happen once a century and in this case people would not die from the complications as much as the virus itself," Dr Glasser said.
"It's about as horrific as you can imagine."
He said the 1918 pandemic had spread around the world in two to three years but that globalisation meant a bird flu pandemic could spread within a few weeks.
Because there was no human resistance, it could affect people of all age groups.
"It really is potentially the single most significant setback to development in 50 or 100 years," Dr Glasser said.
"Once it actually begins spreading there's not much you can do other than deal with the results which in developing countries would be really dreadful."
24aug05
TENS of millions of people could die in an avian flu pandemic that experts believe is inevitable, welfare organisation CARE Australia has warned.
CARE chief executive Robert Glasser yesterday called for a major international effort to help the developing world prepare for the expected outbreak, which he said could be more deadly than the 1918 influenza pandemic that killed at least 40 million people.
"The only defence against this is forward defence – our responses need to be in developing countries in the region where these outbreaks are likely to occur," Dr Glasser said.
"We are woefully unprepared to do that right now."
Avian flu normally affects birds and pigs but was found in humans in Hong Kong in 1997, leading to the mass destruction of the nation's 1.5 million chickens.
It has since been seen in several other Asian nations.
Dr Glasser said the World Health Organisation believed about 110 people had contracted the virus with half of the those affected dying.
Experts also fear that within a few years the virus will develop to the point where it could travel between humans, exposing the world to a potential catastrophe.
"Most people think it's not a question of will it happen but when," Dr Glasser said. "In a worst-case scenario you could imagine that 10-20 per cent of the people who get it could die from it.
"At the worst case this would be an unprecedented and inconceivably deadly virus."
Dr Glasser said developed nations, including Australia, had produced action plans and stockpiled anti-viral medications to cope with any break-out.
But the developing world had little capacity for obtaining medicine, highlighting the need for a major international push to stockpile drugs and develop rapid response teams to contain outbreaks.
"The critical period in terms of our response to this is really the next three years," he said.
"The penny is just dropping for some governments."
Dr Glasser said many people failed to understand the seriousness of the situation because they associated influenza with the illness they suffered each winter.
But avian flu posed a massive risk because so few people had been exposed to it and had developed resistance.
"What people don't realise is that these sorts of pandemics happen once a century and in this case people would not die from the complications as much as the virus itself," Dr Glasser said.
"It's about as horrific as you can imagine."
He said the 1918 pandemic had spread around the world in two to three years but that globalisation meant a bird flu pandemic could spread within a few weeks.
Because there was no human resistance, it could affect people of all age groups.
"It really is potentially the single most significant setback to development in 50 or 100 years," Dr Glasser said.
"Once it actually begins spreading there's not much you can do other than deal with the results which in developing countries would be really dreadful."
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