Risk of bird flu 'higher than ever'

June 02, 2005

THE risk of avian influenza, or bird flu, entering northern Australia through the Northern Territory is higher than ever, Menzies School of Health Research's Bart Currie said yesterday.
And he predicts up to 44,000 people could die within eight weeks if the disease hit our shores without a vaccine to prevent its spread. Professor Currie, who is the infectious diseases physician at Royal Darwin Hospital, was speaking at the Charles Darwin Symposium Series 2005 yesterday.
He said bird flu was Australia's No. 1 communicable disease threat and the likelihood of the disease spreading was now at its highest.
"There are two billion domestic ducks in Asia," he said. "And the ducks are the ultimate source because it comes from wild birds
into domestic ducks so the risk of it happening is higher than ever.
"Sooner or later it will mutate into something much more dangerous to humans."
He said the Federal Government was taking the disease threat seriously, as was the Territory Government.
Professor Currie said the threat to the NT was from people coming in from South-East Asia.
"We are worried that someone could arrive who is highly infectious with this new virulent flu, land in Darwin Airport having infected the people on the plane, who then disperse it to the northern suburbs through their families.
"Within a week or two of that person landing in Darwin we could have a major outbreak on our hands.
"The impact on hospital infrastructure will be greater than any other health threat ever experienced."
Professor Currie also spoke of the potential threat of Japanese encephalitis outbreak in the NT through mosquitoes carried by monsoonal winds from Papua New Guinea